The Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on Net Primary Productivity of Vegetation in Guangdong Province

doi:10.7523/j.ucas.2025.021

Abstract

Abstract: Net Primary Productivity (NPP) serves as a vital metric for evaluating the carbon sequestration potential of terrestrial ecosystems. Investigating the impacts of climate change and land use change on vegetation NPP is crucial for understanding regional ecosystem carbon sink management. This study utilizes MODIS NPP data from 2003 to 2022, combined with Theil-Sen trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall test, to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of NPP in Guangdong Province over the past two decades. Furthermore, correlation analysis and the Geodetector were applied to quantify the effects of climatic factors and land use changes on vegetation NPP. The findings reveal that low-NPP regions in the Pearl River Delta exhibit a significant declining trend, whereas high-NPP regions in eastern and northern Guangdong demonstrate either pronounced or gradual improvement. Additionally, the relative contributions of climate change and land use change to NPP variations were 59.48% and 40.51%, respectively. Among climatic factors, precipitation had the highest contribution (58%), followed by radiation (25%) and temperature (17%). Under future climate scenarios, high-emission conditions are projected to reduce the extent of high-NPP areas while expanding low-NPP areas, whereas moderate-emission scenarios are expected to sustain a steady increase in NPP.

Key words: net primary productivity (NPP), climate change, land use, CMIP6-SSP climate scenarios, spatiotemporal changes

CLC Number:

S771.8

BU Ke, WANG Xue, YAO Fengmei. The Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on Net Primary Productivity of Vegetation in Guangdong Province[J]. Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.7523/j.ucas.2025.021.

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