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›› 2007, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (1): 66-72.DOI: 10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2007.1.010

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Dynamic Analysis and Forecast of Ecological Footprints in Jilin Province

GU Kang-Kang, LIU Jing-Shuang   

  1. Northeast institute of geography and agricultural ecology, CAS
  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2007-01-15

Abstract:

Ecological footprints model is a method of measuring the sustainable development. The model was applied to evaluate the present situation of sustainable development of Ji Lin province and its developing trend in future, which can provide suggestions for the sustainable development of Ji Lin province. We reviewed the past and present study of the model and the way of its calculation. Ecological footprints (EF) and ecological capacity (EC) in Ji Lin province from 1978 to 2002 were studied by the ecological footprints model and ecological footprints and ecological capacity of Ji Lin province from 2004 to 2016 was predicted by the regression model. Results showed: from 1978 to 2002, in Ji Lin province, the per capital EF increased from 1.090 hm2 to 2.457 hm2, the increase speed per year was 3.45%; the per capital EC decreased from 1.210 hm2 to 1.096 hm2, the decrease speed per year was 0.4%. It was ecological surplus in 1978 and 1980, while the other years were all ecological deficit. From 2004 to 2016, the increase speed per year of per capital EF will achieve 1.99%, and the decrease speed per year of per capital EC will reach 0.5%. The extant problems of ecological footprints model and further study were also discussed.

Key words: ecological footprints, biological capacity, ecological deficit, predict, Ji Lin province

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